What is Artificial Intelligence (AI) ?
I found the simple definition of the Oxford dictionary something easily understood:
“The theory and development of computer systems able to perform tasks normally requiring human intelligence, such as visual perception, speech recognition, decision-making, and translation between languages.” Oxford dictionary
Human intelligence, and in fact the collective intelligence of all societies is being made available for decision making. Government is very much about decision making and all information relevant to a decision should be considered in arriving at a policy to be implemented . I say all , because it is now possible to harness the power of AI to converge information and synthesise a way forward for most common problems societies face and governments have to deal with. The research by a Harvard scholar, a University of Lagos researcher, the mistakes of past government policies globally and the collective understanding of the global community is becoming available to all, through various initiatives being developed by the Big tech companies. The likes of Facebook, Google, Microsoft and all..
The global tech giants are investing heavily into AI , and it is safe to assume that these huge investments will some day be monetised and made available freely to people and institutions. Currently that are programmes already developed and made available to the public , for example the Open AI initiative. Human Intelligence is becoming ubiquitous. This challenges all knowledge based industries and simultaneously speeds up decision making in all spheres of human intelligence applications . A Tsunami of changes is heading our way.
All tasks requiring human intelligence is now subject to AI. AI can learn, perceive, recognise speech and even translate languages at speeds beyond human thinking. It is getting better every day.
In my post graduate research many decades ago, I did write a computer programme that assessed the taxes of employees by asking the questions or gathering information required by the tax officer in making an assessment. The actual assessment was done by the programme logic, the actual human thinking part of the task. It was a hundred percent accurate in its outcomes. The tax officer understandably did not like the AI, because it suddenly became a competitor. AI will takeover many jobs , and we are already seeing the beginning of a Post job society.
My article is really about government decision making. It is now possible than ever to consider the AI input into the government decision making loop. This should not be ignored by government policy makers especially when the problem to be solved has precedences and solutions common to most societies .
Can AI be extended to government policy ?
Yes it can . I did a basic research by throwing AI at the problem of removal of Subsidy for petroleum products in Nigeria , a hot topic in the Nigerian space today. Nigerians have enjoyed decades of cheap petrol as we call Gasoline and now , the subsidy has been withdrawn albeit abruptly, an approach not recommended by the AI . There is a lively debate as to how the Government had gone about withdrawing the subsidy.
I decided to subject the the Nigerian government policy on subsidy removal to the AI . Asking the question below and the AI response to the problem
So I posed the question below to the AI ,
“How should a government remove subsidy for goods and services provided for the common good of society?”
See the AI response below in italics:
“Removing subsidies for goods or services is a complex decision that requires careful consideration of its impact on society. Here are some steps a government can take to remove subsidies in a way that promotes the common good:
This is the answer from the AI , obviously a starting point for any decision maker as to steps required when a subsidy is being considered for removal and how to go about it.
“Assess the subsidy's effectiveness: Evaluate the intended goals and outcomes of the subsidy. Determine whether it has achieved its objectives, such as improving access, affordability, or sustainability. Consider if there are alternative policies or approaches that may be more effective in achieving the desired outcomes.
Conduct cost-benefit analysis: Analyze the economic costs and benefits of the subsidy. Consider both short-term and long-term effects, such as the impact on government finances, inflation, and market dynamics. Assess whether the subsidy is sustainable and if it represents the most efficient use of public funds.
Phased reduction or gradual elimination: Instead of abruptly removing the subsidy, consider a phased reduction approach. This allows stakeholders to adjust to the changes gradually, minimizing disruptions. Gradual elimination can also provide time for alternative measures to be developed and implemented.
Targeted support for vulnerable populations: Identify and prioritize the needs of vulnerable or low-income populations who may be disproportionately affected by subsidy removal. Develop targeted support programs, such as direct cash transfers or social safety nets, to ensure that those most in need are protected during the transition period.
Communicate and engage stakeholders: Transparently communicate the reasons for subsidy removal and the potential benefits of the change to the wider public. Engage with affected stakeholders, including consumer groups, businesses, and civil society organizations, to gather feedback and address concerns. This participatory approach can help build consensus and ensure that the removal process is well-informed.
Invest in alternative solutions: Allocate resources to develop alternative solutions that can mitigate the negative effects of subsidy removal. This may include investing in infrastructure, research and development, or market reforms that promote competition, efficiency, and innovation.
Monitor and evaluate: Continuously monitor and evaluate the impact of subsidy removal to assess whether the intended goals are being achieved and to make necessary adjustments. Collect data and feedback from stakeholders to inform future policy decisions and ensure accountability.
Remember, the removal of subsidies should be carried out with careful planning and consideration for the welfare of the population. The government's objective should be to create a sustainable and equitable system that promotes the common good in the long term.”
Conclusion
On the basis of the AI analysis and results , we encourage the government of Nigeria to carefully consider the 6 points enumerated above in the pursuit of the common good of society. We have observed that most of the points recommended are currently being pursued in varying degrees, except that of gradual removal of subsidy. The AI recommended the gradual elimination of subsidy because it allows stakeholders to adjust, minimise disruption and give time for the development of alternative measures. It would not be a sign of weakness if the Nigerian government reverses the policy of overnight removal of the subsidy. There are significant benefits to this approach . Its not too late to carry out a phased withdrawal and spare the economy the shock currently experienced.